DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/02 11:00
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are narrowly mixed, and wheat is 4 to
10 cents lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow down 245 points higher as
active trade continues. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Interest rate
products are higher. Energies are firmer with crude $4.10 higher. Livestock
trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $39.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with spillover support from
energies as trade remains range bound with early gains fading again. Ethanol
margins remain very poor, with unleaded bouncing a bit as the energy complex
tries to find a level to consolidate at with ethanol futures flat. Corn basis
will likely continue to see pressure except for export-oriented locations.
Rains will keep early fieldwork slow. Weekly export sales remained solid at
1.08 million metric tons (mmt). On the May contract, support is the lower
Bollinger band at $3.25, and resistance is the 20-day at $3.55.
Soybeans trade are narrowly mixed at midday with active two-sided trade
continuing after breaking support levels Wednesday. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00
lower, and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. South America is continuing to
harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern, while the real remains very
weak. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage
incentive with the price ratio failing to extend past 2.4 with time running
down to make material changes. Weekly export sales were mixed at 957,400 metric
tons (mt) of old-crop beans, 114,000 of new, 125,900 of old meal, and a
marketing-year high of 67,000 of oil. The May soybean chart support is the gap
at $8.41, with resistance the 20-day at $8.67.
Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with long liquidation resuming
overnight as we continue to pull back from the recent highs with little fresh
news. There has been talk of new Middle East import tenders short term, but
otherwise world export news remains lacking. KC is at a 78-cent discount to
Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -23 with
narrower action this week. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 72,900 mt
of old crop and 185,900 metric tons of new crop. The May KC chart support is
the 20-day at $4.62, with resistance the $5.13 upper Bollinger band.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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